Effects that began with COVID-19 continue to cause the largest relative excess mortality (+42%) in the age group of 25 to 44 year-olds in the USA. Reasons are unclear, but some states performed far better, some have improved, and some have rising mortality. Policy differences may explain the graphs below
Thanks for this. I'm researching the hypothesis this virus was spreading widely months before the lockdowns. If my theory is true, I think there would be some increase in "all cause" mortality especially in the 75 and over demos in, say, December 2019 through early March 2020. I saved data from the first 13 weeks of 2020 in Michigan which seems to show a pretty noticeable spike in deaths compared to the previous five-year norms. I've had problems finding simple "mortality" numbers (by year and week) for many states. Do you happen to have that info? Can you test or look at data from various states and see if deaths were up in December 2019 through about March 1 2020 in any states? I don't think it would be a huge spike, but still noticeable.
I took particular interest in your first graph which shows all-cause mortality for America age 75 to 84. To me, it looks like there is a noticeable increase beginning in late 2019 and going to March (before Covid). Do you agree? I don't see the same bump in other years (except 2018 which was a real bad flu year).
My hypothesis is that some "early" Covid deaths were probably "missed" or attributed to other causes, especially in the 75 and older age cohorts.
Have you looked into lifespan expectations in MA and PR? I seem to recall they were both above the US norm. My first suspicion would be diet.
Thanks for this. I'm researching the hypothesis this virus was spreading widely months before the lockdowns. If my theory is true, I think there would be some increase in "all cause" mortality especially in the 75 and over demos in, say, December 2019 through early March 2020. I saved data from the first 13 weeks of 2020 in Michigan which seems to show a pretty noticeable spike in deaths compared to the previous five-year norms. I've had problems finding simple "mortality" numbers (by year and week) for many states. Do you happen to have that info? Can you test or look at data from various states and see if deaths were up in December 2019 through about March 1 2020 in any states? I don't think it would be a huge spike, but still noticeable.
I took particular interest in your first graph which shows all-cause mortality for America age 75 to 84. To me, it looks like there is a noticeable increase beginning in late 2019 and going to March (before Covid). Do you agree? I don't see the same bump in other years (except 2018 which was a real bad flu year).
My hypothesis is that some "early" Covid deaths were probably "missed" or attributed to other causes, especially in the 75 and older age cohorts.
Thanks for any help you can provide!
bill rice jr.
My email is:
wjricejunior@gmail.com